Unsupervised machine learning framework for discriminating major variants of concern during COVID-19.

Due to the high mutation rate of the virus, the COVID-19 pandemic evolved rapidly. Certain variants of the virus, such as Delta and Omicron emerged with altered viral properties leading to severe transmission and death rates. These variants burdened the medical systems worldwide with a major impact to travel, productivity, and the world economy. Unsupervised machine learning methods have the ability to compress, characterize, and visualize unlabelled data. This paper presents a framework that utilizes unsupervised machine learning methods to discriminate and visualize the associations between major COVID-19 variants based on their genome sequences. These methods comprise a combination of selected dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques. The framework processes the RNA sequences by performing a k-mer analysis on the data and further visualises and compares the results using selected dimensionality reduction methods that include principal component analysis (PCA), t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE), and uniform manifold approximation projection (UMAP). Our framework also employs agglomerative hierarchical clustering to visualize the mutational differences among major variants of concern and country-wise mutational differences for selected variants (Delta and Omicron) using dendrograms. We also provide country-wise mutational differences for selected variants via dendrograms. We find that the proposed framework can effectively distinguish between the major variants and has the potential to identify emerging variants in the future.

Tracking Co-Occurrence of N501Y, P681R, and Other Key Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 Spike for Surveillance

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has produced five variants of concern (VOC) to date. The important spike mutation 'N501Y' is common to Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Omicron VOC, while the 'P681R' is key to Delta's spread. We have analysed circa 10 million SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from the world's largest repository, 'Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID)', and demonstrated that these two mutations have co-occurred on the spike 'D614G' mutation background at least 5767 times from 12 May 2020 to 28 April 2022. In contrast, the Y501-H681 combination, which is common to Alpha and Omicron VOC, is present in circa 1.1 million entries. Over half of the 5767 co-occurrences were in France, Turkey, or US (East Coast), and the rest across 88 other countries;36.1%, 3.9%, and 4.1% of the co-occurrences were Alpha's Q.4, Gamma's P.1.8, and Omicron's BA.1.1 sub-lineages acquiring the P681R;4.6% and 3.0% were Delta's AY.5.7 sub-lineage and B.1.617.2 lineage acquiring the N501Y;the remaining 8.2% were in other variants. Despite the selective advantages individually conferred by N501Y and P681R, the Y501-R681 combination counterintuitively did not outcompete other variants in every instance we have examined. While this is a relief to worldwide public health efforts, in vitro and in vivo studies are urgently required in the absence of a strong in silico explanation for this phenomenon. This study demonstrates a pipeline to analyse combinations of key mutations from public domain information in a systematic manner and provide early warnings of spread. The study here demonstrates the usage of the pipeline using the key mutations N501Y, P681R, and D614G of SARS-CoV-2.

Data-driven platform for identifying variants of interest in COVID-19 virus.

New SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge as part of the virus' adaptation to the human host. The Health Organizations are monitoring newly emerging variants with suspected impact on disease or vaccination efficacy as Variants Being Monitored (VBM), like Delta and Omicron. Genetic changes (SNVs) compared to the Wuhan variant characterize VBMs with current emphasis on the spike protein and lineage markers. However, monitoring VBMs in such a way might miss SNVs with functional effect on disease. Here we introduce a lineage-agnostic genome-wide approach to identify SNVs associated with disease. We curated a case-control dataset of 10,520 samples and identified 117 SNVs significantly associated with adverse patient outcome. While 40% (47) SNV are already monitored and 36% (43) are in the spike protein, we also identified 70 new SNVs that are associated with disease outcome. 31 of these are disease-worsening and predominantly located in the 3'-5' exonuclease (NSP14) with structural modelling revealing a concise cluster in the Zn binding domain that has known host-immune modulating function. Furthermore, we generate clade-independent VBM groupings by identifying interacting SNVs (epistasis). We find 37 sets of higher-order epistatic interactions joining 5 genomic regions (nsp3, nsp14, Spike S1, ORF3a, N). Structural modelling of these regions provides insights into potential mechanistic pathways of increased virulence as well as orthogonal methods of validation. Clade-independent monitoring of functionally interacting (epistasis, co-evolution) SNVs detected emerging VBM a week before they were flagged by Health Organizations and in conjunction with structural modelling provides faster, mechanistic insight into emerging strains to guide public health interventions.

"But Mouse, You Are Not Alone": On Some Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Infecting Mice.

In silico predictions combined with in vitro, in vivo, and in situ observations collectively suggest that mouse adaptation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 virus requires an aromatic substitution in position 501 or position 498 (but not both) of the spike protein's receptor binding domain. This effect could be enhanced by mutations in positions 417, 484, and 493 (especially K417N, E484K, Q493K, and Q493R), and to a lesser extent by mutations in positions 486 and 499 (such as F486L and P499T). Such enhancements, due to more favorable binding interactions with residues on the complementary angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 interface, are, however, unlikely to sustain mouse infectivity on their own based on theoretical and experimental evidence to date. Our current understanding thus points to the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Omicron variants of concern infecting mice, whereas Delta and "Delta Plus" lack a similar biomolecular basis to do so. This paper identifies 11 countries (Brazil, Chile, Djibouti, Haiti, Malawi, Mozambique, Reunion, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela) where targeted local field surveillance of mice is encouraged because they may have come in contact with humans who had the virus with adaptive mutation(s). It also provides a systematic methodology to analyze the potential for other animal reservoirs and their likely locations.

Interoperable medical data: The missing link for understanding COVID-19.

Being able to link clinical outcomes to SARS-CoV-2 virus strains is a critical component of understanding COVID-19. Here, we discuss how current processes hamper sustainable data collection to enable meaningful analysis and insights. Following the 'Fast Healthcare Interoperable Resource' (FHIR) implementation guide, we introduce an ontology-based standard questionnaire to overcome these shortcomings and describe patient 'journeys' in coordination with the World Health Organization's recommendations. We identify steps in the clinical health data acquisition cycle and workflows that likely have the biggest impact in the data-driven understanding of this virus. Specifically, we recommend detailed symptoms and medical history using the FHIR standards. We have taken the first steps towards this by making patient status mandatory in GISAID ('Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data'), immediately resulting in a measurable increase in the fraction of cases with useful patient information. The main remaining limitation is the lack of controlled vocabulary or a medical ontology.

Supporting pandemic response using genomics and bioinformatics: A case study on the emergent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Pre-clinical responses to fast-moving infectious disease outbreaks heavily depend on choosing the best isolates for animal models that inform diagnostics, vaccines and treatments. Current approaches are driven by practical considerations (e.g. first available virus isolate) rather than a detailed analysis of the characteristics of the virus strain chosen, which can lead to animal models that are not representative of the circulating or emerging clusters. Here, we suggest a combination of epidemiological, experimental and bioinformatic considerations when choosing virus strains for animal model generation. We discuss the currently chosen SARS-CoV-2 strains for international coronavirus disease (COVID-19) models in the context of their phylogeny as well as in a novel alignment-free bioinformatic approach. Unlike phylogenetic trees, which focus on individual shared mutations, this new approach assesses genome-wide co-developing functionalities and hence offers a more fluid view of the 'cloud of variances' that RNA viruses are prone to accumulate. This joint approach concludes that while the current animal models cover the existing viral strains adequately, there is substantial evolutionary activity that is likely not considered by the current models. Based on insights from the non-discrete alignment-free approach and experimental observations, we suggest isolates for future animal models.